Source: Duncan Calder (邓曜东) on LinkedIn
Stock Exchanges are plummeting around the world, travel bans are increasing as COVID-19 spreads. The WHO will likely declare a global pandemic soon … all impacting global travel, trade and supply chains.
At the same time, China is revving up its economy as it brings the virus under control within its borders, restrictions on movements reduce and factories ramp up. So the irony is that while the rest of the global economy falters, China might be surging back - relying on its vast domestic economy for growth.
Trump is claiming the risk in US is very low. Is he right? On 26/2, the number of daily new COVID-19 cases outside China exceeded China’s for the first time. Yesterday this widened to 746 to 439 – see charts below prepared by a close friend and long-time China watcher.
Korea now has 1766 cases, Italy 400, Japan 186, Iran 141, Singapore 93, US 59. Africa (Egypt and Algeria) and South America (Brazil) are now infected. The most worrying in my view are Korea, Africa & Italy; and by extension the EU since there are no border checks within the EU Schengen area.
The 1st case of people bringing the virus into China from overseas has occurred. China may need to impose travel bans of its own if other countries are unable to replicate its response.
We are literally all in this together, regardless of whether our home countries have a Coronavirus outbreak or, as in New Zealand's case, an isolated case. The knock-on effect to globalised supply chains is massive, and this affects everyone's daily life, whether in terms of business opportunities, job stability, or cost of living. It will be interesting to see China share what it has learned as other countries grapple with outbreaks.